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By Richard Carter, PhD, Full-Time Faculty, Kaplan
investor you may have realized within minutes after the August 24, 2015, Dow
Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) opening bell that the DJIA dropped by 1,000
points. By the end of the trading day, the DJIA closed down 588 points or
3.57%. Prior to this date the DJIA has
trended up for 6 years.
cannot offer a rational theory that would support a claim that on this date the
intrinsic value of blue chip stocks such as General Electric, Pepsi, and Costco
lost 12% to 20% of their value.
Violations of your rational investment decision
behaviors have come to be the cornerstone of behavioral finance, which is best
described a school of economics that believes that your psychological behavior
influences financial markets to a larger degree than expected.
Maynard Keynes and Robert Shiller offer insights.
Maynard Keynes’ General Theory of
Employment, Interest, and Money (1936) is a cornerstone of economic theory.
This work reflects the underlying factors causing the Stock Market Crash of
1929. Keyes suggests that you, as an investor, will eventually create an
investment strategy reduced to a shallow and uninformed urge to action simply to
outwit the investors today. You’ll fall victim to the consequences of the mass’s
spontaneous optimism and invest as the result of animal spirits—an urge to
action—rather than inaction.
interesting to note that an October 22, 1929, New York Times headline declared that “Prices of Stocks Are Low!” Two days later, the stock market crashed, and
by the end of November the New York Stock Exchange was down 30% from its peak.
Robert Shiller’s Irrational Exuberance (2006) offers
evidence to substantiate that the history of speculative bubbles begins roughly
with the advent of media. Given the media’s obsession to produce “news alert” market reports coupled with investors’
reliance on financial commentary has evolved as a tool for day trading.
Inevitably the collapse of the 1990s
irrational exuberance and internet stock pricing bubble took place in 2000. Of
the 280 stocks in the November 2000 Bloomberg Internet Index report, 79 were
down 90% or more from their 52-week high. Another 72 were down 80 to 89% from their
finance suggests logical trends do not exist in investment markets. Anomalies,
however, seem to exist. Consider the following:
By Cynthia Waddell, PhD, CPA, CFE
By Jerry Taylor
By Geoffrey Vanderpal
By Dr. Denise Schoenherr
By Stanley W. Self, CFE
By Rachel Byers, Full-Time Faculty, School of Business
Accounting firms are taking advantage of some emerging trends.
Change is the name of the game in wealth management!
Most people do not realize there are a variety of jobs in this field.
According to the BLS, employment of insurance sales agents is projected to grow.
Access definitions and FAQs related to accounting.
Access definitions and FAQs related to investments and wealth management.
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Access definitions and FAQs related to risk and insurance.
Kaplan Real Estate Education's Toby Schifsky looks at the factors to consider when pursuing a real estate career.
Toby Schifsky talks about the importance of goals and action steps for achieving them.
Access preparation and practice advise from Kaplan Financial Education experts Mary Orn and Julie Ramsey.
Maylee talks about her experiences with Kaplan Financial Education and preparing for her exams.
French, K. R. (1980). “Stock
returns and the weekend effect.” Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 55-69
Retrieved from http://www.iijournals.com/doi/abs/10.3905/jpm.1988.409156
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and
Money. London: Macmillan.
Rozeff, M., & Kinney, W.
(1976). “Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns.” Journal of
Financial Economics, 3, 379-402 Retrieved from http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejfinec/default3.htm
Saunders, E. (1993). “Stock
prices and Wall Street weather.” American Economic Review, 83, 1337-1345.
Retrieved from doi.10.1037/1089-2618.104.22.168
Shiller, R. (2000). "A More Current Theory: Irrational Exuberance" Irrational Exuberance. Princeton,
NJ: Princeton University Press. p. 223. Retrieved from http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s6779.pdf
Richard Carter is a faculty member at Kaplan University. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not represent the view of Kaplan University.
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